Everyone has a take on AI Overviews. They’re eating clicks. They’re a fad. They’re everywhere. They’re nowhere that matters. Almost all of it is argued from vibes and a couple of screenshots. So we did the boring thing instead: we counted. We pulled the SERP-feature flags for 30 keywords across nine niches and checked, one by one, which ones actually serve an AI Overview.
The headline: 23 of the 30 (77%) had one. Not an edge case — the default furniture on most of the SERPs we looked at. And every single one of those 23 cited its sources. That second fact is the one that should change how you plan, because it means there’s a prize on these SERPs that has nothing to do with ranking #1.
This is a companion to our Keyword Difficulty validity study — same corpus, same discipline: real data, stated method, no cherry-picking. There, KD was the thing under the microscope. Here, it’s a supporting character — because the most useful finding is that KD doesn’t predict whether a SERP gets an AI Overview at all. Intent does.
Method (reproducible)
- Sample: 30 keywords spanning SEO/marketing, finance, health, software, home/DIY, travel, ecommerce, B2B, and general how-to — the same nine-niche set as the KD study, deliberately spread across the difficulty range rather than cherry-picked.
- Signal: Ahrefs’
serp_featuresfield for each keyword (see SERP features). Two flags matter here:ai_overview(an AI Overview is present on that SERP) andai_overview_sitelink(that Overview links out to cited sources). US results, snapshot pulled 2026-06-28. - What we computed: the share of SERPs with an AI Overview present; within those, the share that cite sources; and how presence lines up against Ahrefs Keyword Difficulty and the apparent search intent of each query.
Limitations, stated up front, because they’re real:
- n = 30 is a sample, not a census. It’s enough to show a pattern, not enough to pin a precise population rate.
- One snapshot, one country. AI Overview presence is volatile — Google toggles it by query, time, and personalization. The same SERP can show one tomorrow and not today.
serp_featuresis Ahrefs’ reading of a moment, not a permanent property of the keyword. - This measures presence and that the Overview cites — not who’s cited. We can tell you an AI Overview showed up and that it linked out to sources. We cannot tell you which domains it cited or in what share; that needs entirely different data, and we’re not going to pretend otherwise. Scope every claim below accordingly.
Finding 1 — 77% of the SERPs had an AI Overview
23 of 30. Across nine unrelated niches spanning the full difficulty range we sampled (KD 1 to KD 94), the AI Overview is the rule, not the exception. If your mental model is still “AI Overviews show up on a few informational searches,” update it. On the set we checked, a SERP without one was the minority case — 7 of 30.
That’s the whole reason the “is this a fad?” debate is the wrong debate. Whether or not it’s permanent, right now it’s sitting on roughly three of every four SERPs we sampled, usually above the blue links. You plan around what’s on the page, not around what you hope rolls back.
Finding 2 — 100% of those AI Overviews cite sources
Every one of the 23 carried the ai_overview_sitelink flag. There were zero AI Overviews in our sample that didn’t link out to cited sources. That matters more than the presence number, because it tells you the Overview isn’t a dead end where the answer gets summarized and the user leaves. It’s a citation surface — a slot, above the organic results, that names specific sources and links to them.
So there are two distinct things to win on these SERPs: the #1 organic position (the old game) and a citation inside the Overview (the new one). They are not the same slot, and as we’ll see, they don’t even appear on the same kinds of queries in the same way. Being cited is a real, separate prize — and one a lot of SEO planning still doesn’t have a column for.
Finding 3 — Intent decides, not difficulty
Here’s where KD gets benched. AI Overviews showed up across the entire difficulty range — from “things to do in lisbon” (KD 1) all the way to “content marketing” (KD 88). Low difficulty, high difficulty, doesn’t matter; the Overview is just as likely either way. KD tells you nothing about whether one will appear.
The 7 SERPs without an AI Overview do have something in common — but it isn’t a difficulty band. Their mean KD is roughly 74 (five of the seven are KD 81+), so if anything they’re harder than average. What they share is intent: every one is transactional, tool, or local — a query where Google already has a more direct or better-monetizing answer than a paragraph of generated text.
| Keyword | KD | What the SERP serves instead of an AI Overview |
|---|---|---|
| keyword research | 94 | product / tool intent (people want SEO tools) |
| cheap flights | 93 | a flights module — book, don’t read |
| seo audit | 84 | product / tool intent |
| password manager | 84 | product / tool intent |
| mortgage calculator | 81 | Google’s own calculator widget |
| standing desk | 45 | a shopping carousel (organic_shopping, no Overview) |
| hotels in paris | 34 | local / travel booking |
Notice the two lowest-KD queries in the whole study with no Overview — “standing desk” (45) and “hotels in paris” (34) — aren’t there because they’re easy. They’re there because one is a shopping query and the other is a local-booking query. Where Google has a calculator, a flights board, a shopping carousel, or a local pack that serves the intent better, the AI Overview steps aside.
Finding 4 — The pattern: informational and commercial-research get one; transactional, tool, and local don’t
Line the two groups up and the split is clean. The 23 with an Overview are dominated by informational queries (“how to unclog a drain,” “magnesium benefits,” “how to make sourdough bread,” “intermittent fasting”) and commercial-research queries (“best mattress,” “crm software,” “project management software,” “best credit cards”). Those are exactly the questions a generated summary is built to answer.
| SERP type | Examples from our set | AI Overview? |
|---|---|---|
| Informational (“how to X”, “X benefits”) | how to unclog a drain, magnesium benefits, how to lose weight | Yes |
| Commercial research (“best X”, “X software”) | best mattress, crm software, best credit cards | Yes |
| Transactional / tool / local | cheap flights, mortgage calculator, hotels in paris, standing desk | No |
The dividing line is the job the searcher is trying to do, which is the same thing commercial intent is really measuring. If they’re trying to understand or compare, there’s an AI Overview. If they’re trying to do, buy, calculate, or book, usually there isn’t — Google sends them to the tool or the carousel that closes the loop. KD sits flat across both groups, so on its own it predicts nothing here. Read the intent behind the query and you can call the Overview before you ever pull the SERP.
What this means for your SEO
On roughly three of every four informational and commercial-research SERPs we checked, an AI Overview now sits above the organic links and names its sources. That changes the shape of the target. Ranking #1 and being cited in the Overview are two different objectives on the same page — and you can absolutely have one without the other.
If your demand is mostly transactional, tool, or local — the searcher wants to buy, calculate, or book — AI Overviews are largely not your problem yet, on this evidence. Keep optimizing for the SERP feature that does show up (shopping, local pack, the relevant module) and don’t overthink the Overview.
But if your demand is informational or commercial-research — “best X,” “how to X,” “X vs Y,” “is X worth it” — being citable is no longer optional polish. A growing share of that SERP’s attention lands in a box you don’t rank your way into; you earn your way into it by being the kind of source these systems quote. That’s a distinct discipline: generative engine optimization (being the cited source), versus classic ranking (being the #1 link). We wrote the playbook for the first one in how to do AIO/AEO.
One honest caveat, repeated because it matters: this study proves the Overviews are there and that they cite. It does not prove who they cite, or that being citable is easy, or that it pays the same as a #1 ranking. It proves the slot exists and is common. Whether you can win it is the next study — and the next quarter of work.
Frequently Asked Questions
How common are AI Overviews in search results?
In our 30-keyword sample, 23 SERPs (77%) showed an AI Overview — so on roughly three of every four searches we checked, one was present, usually above the organic links. It’s now the default on most SERPs, not an edge case. Note this is one US snapshot of 30 keywords, and AI Overview presence is volatile by query and time.
Do AI Overviews link to sources?
Yes. Every AI Overview in our sample — all 23 — cited its sources, carrying Ahrefs’ ai_overview_sitelink flag. The Overview isn’t a dead end that summarizes and keeps the user; it names specific sources and links out to them. That makes being cited a real, separate objective from ranking in the organic results below it.
Which searches don’t get an AI Overview?
In our set, the 7 SERPs without one were all transactional, tool, or local queries — “cheap flights,” “mortgage calculator,” “hotels in paris,” “standing desk,” and product-tool searches like “password manager.” Where Google has a more direct answer (a calculator, a flights board, a shopping carousel, a local pack), the AI Overview steps aside.
Does keyword difficulty predict whether a SERP has an AI Overview?
No. AI Overviews appeared across the full range, from KD 1 to KD 88, so difficulty told us nothing about presence. The 7 SERPs without one actually skewed harder (mean KD around 74). Intent decides, not difficulty: informational and commercial-research queries get an Overview; transactional, tool, and local ones usually don’t.
Is ranking #1 the same as being cited in an AI Overview?
No — they’re two different slots on the same page. The #1 organic position is the top blue link; an AI Overview citation is a named source inside the generated box that often sits above it. You can rank #1 without being cited, or be cited without ranking #1. On informational and commercial-research SERPs, both are worth pursuing.
If your demand skews informational or commercial-research, the AI Overview is already on most of those SERPs and already citing sources — and ranking #1 doesn’t get you in it. That’s a separate objective with its own playbook. If you want to be the source these Overviews quote, that’s the work we do in generative engine optimization.
Method note: Ahrefs keywords-explorer-overview serp_features (AI Overview presence and source-citation flags), US, snapshot pulled 2026-06-28. n = 30 keywords across 9 niches. This measures whether an AI Overview is present and that it cites sources — not which sources it cites. AI Overview presence is volatile; treat these figures as a single snapshot, not a fixed rate.